NISRA has issued its latest labour market and economic performance indicators for Northern Ireland.   The employment rate decreased while the economic output increased by 1.2% in Q2 (private sector output increased by 1.4%).  See commentary and key statistics for both below.

Economic commentary

• NI economic activity grew faster than UK GDP over the quarter and the year. NI output increased by 1.2% over the quarter and 1.6% over the year, compared to an increase in GDP for the UK of 0.4% over the quarter and 1.2% over the year. 

• Over the last two years, growth in NI output increased slightly (0.3%), compared to UK growth of 1.4%. This was a fall on the NI growth rate compared to the two years to Q2 2017 (1.7%). NI’s Private sector output increased by 1.4% over the quarter, and over the year by 1.9%

• The NICEI is currently 4.8% below the maximum value recorded in Quarter 2 2007. In Quarter 2 2018, UK GDP was estimated to have been 10.9% higher than its pre–economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 2008. The latest NICEI results continue to show that the UK has had a shorter downturn and a faster recovery than NI.

Employment commentary

• Unemployment increased over the quarter to 4.3%. This is the first time in a year that unemployment has risen above 4.0% and above the UK unemployment rate. Despite this increase over the quarter, the rate is below the unemployment rate one year ago and remains low when compared to rates over the last ten years.

• The employment rate decreased over the quarter and increased over the year. At 69.2% the employment rate is statistically significantly above rates estimated in 2013 but remains below the UK (75.5%) and the lowest of the UK regions. The economic inactivity rate (27.5%) was unchanged over the quarter and decreased over the year. It continues to be the highest of the UK regions.

Economic statistics

NI Economic output increased over the quarter and the year

• The NICEI results indicate that NI economic activity was estimated to have increased by 1.2% in real terms between Quarter 1 (January–March) 2018 and Quarter 2 (April–June) 2018. The index increased by 1.6% over the year from Quarter 2 2017 to Quarter 2 2018.

• The increase in the NICEI over the latest quarter (1.2%) was driven by increases in the Services sector (a positive contribution of 0.7 percentage points (pps)), the Construction sector (a positive contribution of 0.4 pps), the Public Sector (a positive contribution of 0.1 pps) and the Production sector (a positive contribution of 0.1pps)

NI output increased over the quarter and year at a faster rate than UK GDP

• NI output increased by 1.2% over the quarter and 1.6% over the year to Q2 2018, whilst UK GDP grew by 0.4% and 1.2% over the same period.

Reduction in Northern Ireland’s annualised rate of growth to Q2 2018

• When the trend in the index is considered over the last three years there is evidence that the rate of growth has slowed. Annualised average growth over the last four quarters to Quarter 2 2018 compared to the previous four quarters, increased slightly (0.3%).  This was lower than the annual growth over the previous two year period (to Quarter 2 2017) which was 1.7%.

Increases in private and public sector growth

• Private sector output increased by 1.4% between Quarter 1 (January–March) 2018 and Quarter 2 (April–June) 2018 and increased by 1.9% over the year (Quarter 2 2017 to Quarter 2 2018). The Public sector jobs index increased by 0.5% over the quarter and by 0.7% over the year.

• For the Private sector, average growth for the four quarters to Quarter 2 2018 compared to the previous four quarters increased slightly (0.3%). Whilst the Public sector (employee jobs) index increased by 0.4% over the same period.

Full report is here

Labour Market Statistics

Unemployment increased over the quarter and decreased over the year

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period June–August 2018 was 4.3% (total of 38,000). The unemployment rate increased by 0.9 pps over the quarter and decreased by 0.4 pps over the year (from 4.7%). Although the quarterly and annual changes were not statistically significant, the decrease from early 2016 (5.9%) was statistically significant.

• The NI unemployment rate (4.3%) is above the UK average of 4.0% and the joint fourth highest rate of the UK regions. NI unemployment was lower than the European Union (6.8%) and the Republic of Ireland (5.9%) rates for July 2018.

• Approximately half (51%) of those unemployed in NI were unemployed for one year or more, compared to 25% in the UK.

Employment rate decreased over the quarter while the economic inactivity rate was unchanged

• There was a decrease (0.6 pps) in the employment rate (69.2% or 811,000 persons) over the quarter and an increase (0.8 pps) over the year.  The change in the employment rate was not statistically significant over the quarter or the year.                                                                                     

• The economic inactivity rate (27.5% – equating to 322,000 persons) was unchanged over the quarter and decreased over the year (0.6 pps). The changes over the quarter and year were not statistically significant.

Full report is here