Accountancy experts say Irish economic confidence in Q4 has bounced back after capitulating in the previous quarter.

A survey of more than 80 senior accountancy practitioners on Irish economic conditions, who reflect the outlook of 10,000 (approx.) small businesses they advise, found that confidence had picked up by 20.5% to –17, after tumbling to a record low of –58 in the previous quarter.

The report Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), jointly published by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) reveals global confidence is below its long run average and the message is continued modest expansion in the world economy early in 2020.

Michael Taylor, chief economist at ACCA, highlighted Ireland’s domestic performance as giving the country’s economy a significant boost.

He said: ‘The Irish economy is buoyant against a global economy facing a sharp slowdown in global trade.

‘In key domestic areas, the economy is holding up well. Notably in the housing market and agriculture. Unemployment is close to a 13–year low at 4.8% in December – the GECS employment index points to continued buoyancy in the labour market.’

Taylor continued: ‘The year ahead will be crucial, notably as the UK and the EU negotiate a post–Brexit trade agreement – Ireland being the most exposed EU economy to the UK. It would be very positive if a free trade agreement was reached in what is a tight timescale.

‘ACCA maintains a no–deal Brexit would harm Ireland more than any other EU country, given its trade integration with the UK economy.’     

Key global messages from the survey include;

• The possibility that suppliers could go out of business was a worry for just over 10% of respondents

• The proportion concerned about customers going out of business fell slightly to 22% but remains close to a five–year high 

• Orders declined in some areas such as the UK and Middle East and increased in others

especially Africa and Central and Eastern Europe

• For the first time since Q2 2018 the US orders index increased, an encouraging pointer to US growth early in 2020 

Mr Taylor said of the global results: ‘Last year the global economy expanded at close to 3%, the slowest rate since the financial crisis ten years ago. The GECS foreshadowed this slowdown which continued steadily throughout last year. Looking ahead the GECS points to steady growth early in 2020, with no strong pick up but no global recession either.    

Taylor concluded: ‘Many risks to the global economy in 2020 are the same as in 2019, including trade tensions between the US and China, which were a major cause of slowing global growth. Recent developments in this area have been positive, but risks of a re–escalation with renewed tariff increases remain. The Middle East is the current focus of geopolitical risk although the potential for conflict here to hurt the global economy through a surge in oil prices is much reduced.’

Commenting on the report, Caitriona Allis, Head of ACCA Ireland said, “ACCA’s Global Economic Conditions Survey for Q4 2019 reflects an upbeat business sector with sustained growth being predicted of 3.5% by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and more certainty around the Brexit process with the potential of a no deal Brexit diminishing.  This is good news for Ireland and with challenges to international trade and a global economic slow–down expected in 2020, a strong and robust local economy with continued export growth positions us well to weather those storms”

Raef Lawson, Ph.D., CMA, CPA, IMA vice president of research and policy commented: ‘There are downside risks to the economy, the main one being a re–escalation of US–China trade tensions. But on the upside last year’s monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and many other central banks will support growth in coming months. It is also of course a US presidential election year, which often coincides with a buoyant economy. To sum up, a global recession is very unlikely but it will be another year of sluggish growth.’

GECS Q4 2020 can be found online at: https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/GECS_Q4_2020.html

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About ACCA

ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants, offering business–relevant, first–choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management.

ACCA supports its 219,000 members and 527,000 students (including affiliates) in 179 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills required by employers. ACCA works through a network of 110 offices and centres and 7,571 Approved Employers worldwide, and 328 approved learning providers who provide high standards of learning and development.

Through its public interest remit, ACCA promotes appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in reputation and influence.

ACCA has introduced major innovations to its flagship qualification to ensure its members and future members continue to be the most valued, up to date and sought–after accountancy professionals globally.

Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. More information is here: www.accaglobal.com

About IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) IMA®, named the 2017 and 2018 Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/International Accounting Bulletin, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA® (Certified Management Accountant) and CSCA® (Certified in Strategy and Competitive Analysis) programs, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 125,000 members in 150 countries and 300 professional and student chapters. Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit www.imanet.org.